Box Office Predictions May 16-18: Godzilla has a Million Dollar Arm


GodzillaMillion Dollar ArmThe big opener this weekend will be Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards (director of the cool, low-budget flick Monsters). It stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Bryan Cranston and Elizabeth Olsen. I’m pretty excited for this one, partly due to a fantastic advertising campaign. It’s debuting at nearly 4000 theatres this weekend, working on a budget of $160 million. Films similar to this open at $51.113 million. Since this film has so much of a “buzz” factor, I see it doing it great numbers – something along the lines of World War Z‘s $66.4 million and not Pacific Rim‘s $37.2 million. Social media tracking also suggests this will do very well, as in an above $60 million debut. I’m going to predict this film at $73.5 million.

Also opening this weekend: Million Dollar Arm from Disney studios. Has anyone else already confused the title for Million Dollar Baby a few times? I’ve noticed a lot of “special screenings” lately; there was on Saturday and I noticed 7PM screenings throughout the week, too. It seems that it has made the word-of-mouth have a good edge, thanks to some TV spots featuring little blurbs from the average movie-goer. That might be more appealing to someone else who is the average movie-goer.  Films similar to this open at $11.7 million. The last sports movie to hit screens was Draft Day which disappointed, making $9.7 million. But the last baseball movie, 42, made a great $27.48 million. I don’t think this will be that big (as 42 went on to gross a bit over $95 million domestically), and it seems to me that the bigger question is if this will break $20 million. The sports dramas released by Disney have gone as low as The Greatest Game Ever Played ($3.6 million at 1080 theatres) and as high as Remember the Titans ($20.9 million). I’m going to predict this at $22.1 million, which is $1M over The Rookie‘s 2002 opening ($16M) adjusted for inflation.

Are you guys seeing any movies this weekend? I’m seeing Godzilla tomorrow and I’m hoping to see Million Dollar Arm on Monday. Have a good long weekend fellow Canadians!


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