“Closed Circuit” probably won’t do so well over this Labor Day weekend. The fact that “Paranoia,” a similar generic August thriller, only did $3.53 million in its three-day release, it leads me to believe this will do similarly, but a bit better. Just by a bit. (Though, “Paranoia” did go to 2459 theatres, while “CC” is only going to 800 theatres.) Similar movies open at $8.615 million, and the highest opening ever for a similar movie was the $29.15 million “Eagle Eye” mustered back in 2008. It seems that Focus Features is hoping for a good opening over Labor Day, as “The Debt” earned $9.9 million over this weekend in 2011. Focus wishes. I haven’t seen one TV spot, so I don’t think the odds of this making a lot of money – especially against “Getaway” – are high. “Paranoia” also has a retched 3% on Rotten Tomatoes, and this has a middling 40% at this time. Because of that, this might have a better word-of-mouth. My prediction for the three day frame is $3.8 million, and the five-day frame will be $6.9 million.
“Getaway” looks pretty good, yet generic; it stars Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, and Jon Voight plays the villain. I like hostage situation movies, and I think they’re cool when they aren’t restricted to a house. Movies similar to this open at $15.33 million. I’ve seen a few TV spots for this. “Closed Circuit” is its most threatening competition, and that’s not much of a threat at all. There isn’t a lot to discuss here – so I think this will make about twice as much as “CC” in its opening. My prediction is $8.75 million.
As much as it pains me to say it, I think “One Direction: This is Us” is going to win the weekend, because I think there are enough young girls in the world to make that happen. I just learned that the “Super Size Me” guy, Morgan Spurlock, will be directing this. That doesn’t really enhance my interest to see it though. It looks like a crappy concert movie, but it somehow has a 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. Can it get any worse? It’s coming to over 2500 theatres this weekend, and movies similar to it open at $16.31 million. The only concert movies to do great business are the “Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour” that earned $31.11 million in Miley’s non-twerking days, and “Michael Jackson’s This is It” that earned $23.2 million in 2009. Concert/documentary movies have had a difficult time as of late, with “Glee The 3D Concert Movie” earning $5.96 million in its opening, and “Katy Perry: Part of Me” earning $7.13 million. I think this one could buck that trend, but I really wouldn’t mind if it didn’t. My prediction for the three-day is $15.25 million.
Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. One Direction: This is Us: $15.25m
2. The Butler: $10.5m
3. We’re the Millers: $9.12m
4. Getaway: $8.75m
5. Planes: $5.7m
6. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones: $5.3m
7. The World’s End: $5.1m
8. Elysium: $3.61m
9. Closed Circuit: $3.8m
10. You’re Next: $3.51m
— The Grandmaster: $2.39m