August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Third most-anticipated: "Elysium"“Elysium” looks great, and it looks like it could be the best sci-fi of the year yet. Okay, I’ll try to keep my expectations lower than that, because it’s been quite a year for sci-fi. Neill Blomkamp’s first movie “District 9” impressed, especially with its $37.35 million opening. This has been eagerly anticipated, with its star power (Matt Damon, Jodie Foster) and an intriguing story. Thanks to the buzz, I think this will gross more (just by a bit) than “District 9.” And if it doesn’t, it might as well be guaranteed that it grosses closer to “Oblivion” ($37.05m) than “After Earth” ($27.52m). I’m doubt this will be anything less than high 30’s. My prediction is $38.4 million.

We're the Millers“We’re the Millers” looks funny. It looks like an amusing road trip comedy, where the character Sudeikis plays has to bring a huge shipment of marijuana across the Mexican border back to the U.S., and he hires a stripper (Jennifer Aniston), a runaway (Emma Roberts) and a virgin (Will Poulter) to act as his family. The marketing campaign for this has been light, but I’ve been intrigued by it ever since I saw the red band trailer before “The Hangover Part III.” I like the premise. I don’t think this will gross more than “Identity Thief’s” three-day $34.55 million total, in its five days. Movies similar to this gross $19.19 million. Since the marketing has been light, I think this will manage a $28.6 million five-day, and a $21.6 million three-day.

PlanesI don’t like the fact that “Planes” exists. It should have just taken the straight-to-video route.”Cars” was a hard enough sell on me (I still have yet to see it), so there’s no way I’ll be seeing this one. Movies similar to “Planes” open to an average $34.82 million. I guess this is part of an established brand, but it’s just an ole spin-off, “above the world of Cars”. I think this will do better than “The Smurfs 2,” even if the market is really busy for family-friendly fare; because “The Smurfs 2” was already hated by adults before it even came to theatres, and families might give this one more of a fair chance. However, since families have already spent so much money this summer, I’m going to go low and say $20 million.

Percy Jackson 2The “Percy Jackson” franchise seems destined for mediocrity. (I watched the first one, so I’ll post my review soon.) The first scored a worldwide gross of $226 million on a $95 million budget. Though, I doubt “Sea of Monsters” will gross more in its debuting five-day frame than the first one did in its first three days (a $31.236 million tally). And that wasn’t up against much direct competition: “Avatar” ($23.61m) in its ninth week, “Dear John” ($16m) in its second week, the R-rated horror “The Wolfman” ($31.47m) in its first weekend, and the lame rom-com “Valentine’s Day” ($56.26m) in its first weekend. This movie is going up against an already competitive family-friendly market: “Turbo,” “Grown Ups 2,” “Despicable Me 2,” “The Smurfs 2,” and fellow newcomer, “Planes.” Films similar to this open at an average $47.12 million. I think this will gross $26.9 million in its five-day, and I’ll say $19m for the three-day frame.

As for the holdovers, it’ll be interesting to see how the two new family-friendly films affects the already disappointing performance by “The Smurfs 2.” I think the two new releases will be the nail in “Turbo’s” coffin. I also wonder how “We’re the Millers” will affect the performance of “Grown Ups 2″… I guess we’ll see by the end of the weekend. This seems like it’ll be a much busier weekend than last.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:

1. “Elysium”: $38.4m
2. “We’re the Millers”: $21.6m (Five-day: $28.6m)
3. “Planes”: $20.25m
4. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters”: $19m (Five-day: $26.9m)
5. “2 Guns”: $15.15m
6. “The Wolverine”: $12.11m
7. “The Smurfs 2”: $9.32m
8. “The Conjuring”: $8.08m
9. “Despicable Me 2“: $6.7m
10. “Grown Ups 2“: $5.15m

2 thoughts on “August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

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