Box Office Predictions, 6/21-6/23: Clash of Monsters and Zombies

Two big releases are going up against the Man of Steel holdover. The first release is Monsters University, the anticipated prequel to Monsters, Inc. It’s one of my most anticipated movies of the year, and my most anticipated movie of June. For me, any score lower than a 75 or so would be a disappointment. Is a movie worthy of an 80 too much to ask for? Anyway, Pixar has a great track record at the box office and many of their films are critically acclaimed. Cars 2 is their worst-reviewed movie, but I haven’t seen it. I think this will attract a big audience this weekend. Parents will take their kids to it, and it’s really anticipated by fans of the original. This might just end up being one of those animated movies that the adults enjoy more than the kids. Pixar is rather consistent with their opening weekends, with their last five grossing at least $60 million. Toy Story 3 has the best opening weekend with $110.3 million. I think this one has second best opening weekend in the bag, as Monsters, Inc. had a $62.5 million debut back in 2001, which translates to $85 million adjusted for ticket price inflation. Its unadjusted lifetime gross was $289.9 million, and that’s about $391.8 million now. Twelve years is more than enough time for a whole new generation of movie lovers to shuffle in. A prequel to Monsters, Inc. might not be needed – but I’m welcoming it with open arms. I’m going to predict this one at $90 million.

Zombie movie World War Z also debuts this weekend. It stars Brad Pitt and it has a 3D edge. I don’t know if fans of the book will come out to see this, mostly because it’s said that one of the main similarities is the title. Many people love a good zombie movie, even if the zombies are just CGI and not good-old fashioned make-up. Zombie movies are successful, but rarely big blockbusters (2004’s Dawn of the Dead opened to $26.7 million, while Zombieland opened to $24.7 million). Movies similar to this open to an average $38.9 million. Brad Pitt is still a big star, but After Earth showed that movies with big stars, even like Will Smith, can bomb. I think this has a lot more going for it than only Brad Pitt; zombies and fans of the book might still be interested to check this out. I think this is more likely to over-perform than bomb, as well. Brad Pitt has an opening weekend of $23.2 million. The real question is, how big will this one be? I’m going to predict this at $47 million.

The Bling Ring also expands this weekend into 650 theatres, and I’m going to predict it at $3.6 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10:

1. Monsters University: $90, 000, 000
2. Man of Steel: $58, 700, 000
3. World War Z: $47, 000, 000
4. This is the End: $10, 400, 000
5. Now You See Me: $6, 490, 000
6. Fast & Furious 6: $4, 790, 000
7. The Internship: $4, 065, 000
8. The Bling Ring: $3, 600, 000
9. Star Trek Into Darkness: $3, 510, 000
10. The Purge: $3, 075, 000

8 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions, 6/21-6/23: Clash of Monsters and Zombies

    1. Hahah who knows! You could be right! I saw you had the lowest prediction for MU on Box Office Ace! $65, was it? What was your prediction for WWZ? Instead of asking I’ll check out your post 😀

      1. It would be nice if you visited my post 😀

        I don’t think MU will make quite as much as people think, don’t forget Despicable me 2 is out next weekend. People might wait 😀

      2. I’m theeere right now!

        I think it’ll be a titan the first weekend; but I could be wrong. I think MU will do great this weekend, stick around next against White House Down and The Heat and start to waver a little, but still do good business, when Despicable Me 2 comes out on July 3. (Do you guys get it earlier or later?) It’s a busy market.

        That’s a fair point, they could wait, but Monsters Inc. is loved enough to attract a good-sized audience. At least I think 😀 I mighta went too high, but I dunno… Despicable Me might have been too kiddish for adults… We’ll see, pal 🙂

      3. Do you guys get it the 28th?!

        Don’t sweat it too badly, Tim. Families could wait. I know I couldn’t, though. Both movies have good-sized followings. Hopefully I’m closer though 😉 Hahaha.

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