October 26-28: Box Office Predictions


Chasing Mavericks (2012)
Plot: When young Jay Moriarty discovers that the mythic Mavericks surf break, one of the biggest waves on Earth, exists just miles from his Santa Cruz home, he enlists the help of local legend Frosty Hesson to train him to survive it.

Chasing Mavericks actually seems like a nice true story to digest. The setting of it all seems quite nice, and it seems like yet another great sports drama. It may attract family audiences alike, and I’m compelled to give this a shot this weekend. This can be easily compared to last year’s Soul Surfer, which opened to $10.6 million, and grossed a total of $43.85 million. The star factor of Gerard Butler in this just may help its success. This one does seem a bit more exciting than Soul Surfer, but I assume not nearly as inspiring. I’m hoping for this one to be great, and I think will attract a fine audience.

C.M. PREDICTION: $12,800,000

Cloud Atlas (2012)
Plot: An exploration of how the impact of individual lives impact one another in the past, present and future, as one soul is shaped from a killer to hero, and an act of kindness ripples across centuries to inspire a revolution.

Cloud Atlas is based on David Mitchell’s acclaimed science fiction novel. This one needs a trio of directors: Tom Tykwer (Run Lola Run) and the Wachowski Brothers (The Matrix Trilogy). Cloud Atlas can be just a marvel for the eyes without any real narrative; or it could be stunning and have a great meaning. It can be both a let-down or a classic. We just don’t know. Every actor (like Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, Jim Broadbent, Hugo Weaving, Hugh Grant) plays multiple characters, so that can make the film a little hard to follow. All I know, I’m pretty excited for it. I’ll probably see it on Halloween night to escape the trick o’ treaters, and this should be effective because it clocks in at nearly three hours. The runtime could seem unwelcoming to the conventional movie-goer who is just looking for some quick entertainment. Still, the star factor will certainly draw in a crowd. The Matrix raked in $27 million in its opening weekend, Reloded earned $91 million, and Revolutions earned $48 million. Considering how Cloud Atlas is being shown in the least amount of theaters this weekend (out of the wide releases, to about 1950+) doesn’t shout a lot of confidence. It still does look good, and I’ll be happy to give it a shot.

C.A. PREDICTION: $23,000,000

Fun Size (2012)
Plot: Wren’s Halloween plans go awry when she’s made to babysit her brother, who disappears into a sea of trick-or-treaters. With her best friend, and two nerds at her side, she needs to find her brother before her mom finds out he’s missing.

Fun Size is a Halloween themed teen comedy. I’m not sure how well it will do at the box office, because it only sounds okay. Victoria Justice is in it, which will appeal to those Nickelodeon fans. It reminds me of a sort of much more tame version of The Sitter meets Superbad. And then those two meet the other party vibe of Project X (2012).The film is getting one of the largest releases of the weekend. I’m not sure how much it will rake in because there are going to be Halloween parties going on this weekend. Though, the demographic feels a little younger teens, so they may not be partying too hard. It sort of looks fun though, and I wouldn’t say no to experiencing it. The Sitter opened to the sound of $9,000,000 and had a lifetime gross of $30,441,326. And Superbad opened to the sound of $33,000,000 and had a lifetime gross of a little over $121 million. Also, Project X opened to $21.05 million, and grossed a total of $54.7 million I think Fun Size will certainly lean more toward Project X’s side of the box office spectrum, and make more than The Sitter in its opening weekend, but not more than X.

F.S. PREDICTION: $14,700,000

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (2012)
Plot: When her father disappears, Heather Mason is drawn into a strange and terrifying alternate reality that holds answers to the horrific nightmares that have plagued her since childhood.

There’s nothing better than a little Silent Hill to throw us into that Halloween spirit. The supernatural spirits and creatures and beings in this film seem really cool. The first Silent Hill opened to $20.15 million, and ended with $46 million. This seems really fun, and a real treat for horror fanatics.

S.H.2. PREDICTION: $19,500,000


1. Cloud Atlas/ $23,000,000/ Warner Bros./ 66%
2. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D/ $19,500,000/ Open Road Films
3. Paranormal Activity 4/ $17,500,000/ Paramount/ 27%
4. Argo/ $15,200,000/ Warner Bros./ 95%
5. Fun Size/ $14,750,000/ Paramount
6. Chasing Mavericks/ $12,800,000/ Fox
7. Taken 2/ $12,000,000/ Fox/ 21%
8. Hotel Transylvania/ $11,350,000/ Sony/ 43%
9. Alex Cross/ $9,200,000/ Summit Entertainment/ 13%
10. Sinister/ $6,500,000/ Summit Entertainment/ 61%

Any thoughts on my predictions, or any predictions of your own? Which films are you most excited about seeing?

2 thoughts on “October 26-28: Box Office Predictions

  1. Hi Daniel!

    I see you’ve gone much higher than I have on most of your picks.

    Cloud Atlas is such a difficult movie to figure out, in more ways than one. The theater count isn’t all that high, and when you couple the 3 hour length of the film with the confusing story, I get the impression more and more that it’s going to bomb this weekend. I’m think that I went over with my $17M prediction. I’m starting to think it ends up closer to $12M-$13M

    I think Fun Size could potentially be a surprise hit, and equal the $11M I expect from Silent Hill: Revelation. Chasing Mavericks just doesn’t look like the type of film that is going to connect with audiences; at least not the paying kind. I think it’s the kind of movie that will be better viewed on video.

    I’m glad to see your sticking with it!

    Good luck!

    1. Haha very true, I think that too, now, but I felt like being optimistic. Chasing Mavericks was decent, yeah but I never really found myself relating to it on a high level. And I wish good luck to you! You were probably more psychic than I, for this weekend.

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