The Big Wedding looks like a lame romantic comedy. It could be funny, but it looks as if it has flop scribbled on it. It’s a big ensemble including Robert De Niro, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, Katherine Heigl, Amanda Seyfried, Robin Williams, Ben Barnes and Topher Grace. I guess it’s better than just another Katherine Heigl movie. It just happens to have her in it. The story follows a long-divorced couple (De Niro and Keaton) fakes being married as their family unites for a wedding. It looks like it could turn out to be better than expected, but I’m not so sure. It just seems like one big debacle, and not even a charming one like While You Were Sleeping. The romantic comedy genre averages a $10.37 million opening. Movies similar to this have an average opening of $19.55 million, but this won’t come close to that. This looks like it’s a similar formula to Valentine’s Day or New Year’s Eve because of its ensemble. Moviegoers are also getting smarter. Since Valentine’s Day was so bad, the sort-of sequel New Year’s Eve only earned $13.02 million in its opening weekend and grossed a total of $54.54 million, while Valentine’s Day grossed $56.26 million in its opening weekend. There just doesn’t seem to be a very large audience for these extremely familiar romantic comedies. But it is nice to see movies targeted at baby boomers. I expect an opening around R-rated The Five-Year Engagement‘s $10.61 million opening. It could do good business between You Again‘s $8.4 million opening and The Family Stone‘s $12.5 million. I expect an opening at $10.7 million.
Pain & Gain looks awesomely entertaining. I wouldn’t call it one of my most anticipated movies of the year, but I’m hoping it will be good. Mark Walhberg’s opening weekend average is $21.28 million; The Rock’s, $27.17 million; Ed Harris’, $13.52 million; and Anthony Mackie’s is $14.21 million. Michael Bay directs a ton of popcorn movies, and the trend seems to continue – even though this does look entertaining and very unique. The writing team of Christopher Markus and Stephen Feely are writing veterans of the Narnia franchise, and they are now Marvel writers (they wrote the first Captain America, and they’re writing Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. With a unique writer(s) and director team and a sweet ensemble cast, this could be a big surprise. Movies similar to this open at an average $19.46 million, and I can see this opening around Contraband‘s $23.4 million. My prediction is $24.8 million.
Here’s how I see the top 10:
1. Pain & Gain: $24, 800, 000
2. Oblivion: $18, 058, 000
3. 42: $11, 322, 000
4. The Big Wedding: $10, 700, 000
5. The Croods: $6, 300, 000
6. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $3, 600, 000
7. The Place Beyond the Pines: $3, 350, 000
8. Scary Movie 5: $3, 016, 000
9. Olympus Has Fallen: $2, 600, 000
10. Evil Dead: $1, 698, 000