April 26-28 Box Office Predictions: ‘Pain & Gain’ vs. ‘The Big Wedding’

Pain & Gain
Pain & Gain vs.


The Big Wedding
The Big Wedding








The Big Wedding looks like a lame romantic comedy. It could be funny, but it looks as if it has flop scribbled on it. It’s a big ensemble including Robert De Niro, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, Katherine Heigl, Amanda Seyfried, Robin Williams, Ben Barnes and Topher Grace. I guess it’s better than just another Katherine Heigl movie. It just happens to have her in it. The story follows a long-divorced couple (De Niro and Keaton) fakes being married as their family unites for a wedding. It looks like it could turn out to be better than expected, but I’m not so sure. It just seems like one big debacle, and not even a charming one like While You Were Sleeping. The romantic comedy genre averages a $10.37 million opening. Movies similar to this have an average opening of $19.55 million, but this won’t come close to that. This looks like it’s a similar formula to Valentine’s Day or New Year’s Eve because of its ensemble. Moviegoers are also getting smarter. Since Valentine’s Day was so bad, the sort-of sequel New Year’s Eve only earned $13.02 million in its opening weekend and grossed a total of $54.54 million, while Valentine’s Day grossed $56.26 million in its opening weekend. There just doesn’t seem to be a very large audience for these extremely familiar romantic comedies. But it is nice to see movies targeted at baby boomers. I expect an opening around R-rated The Five-Year Engagement‘s $10.61 million opening. It could do good business between You Again‘s $8.4 million opening and The Family Stone‘s $12.5 million. I expect an opening at $10.7 million.

Pain & Gain looks awesomely entertaining. I wouldn’t call it one of my most anticipated movies of the year, but I’m hoping it will be good. Mark Walhberg’s opening weekend average is $21.28 million; The Rock’s, $27.17 million; Ed Harris’, $13.52 million; and Anthony Mackie’s is $14.21 million. Michael Bay directs a ton of popcorn movies, and the trend seems to continue – even though this does look entertaining and very unique. The writing team of Christopher Markus and Stephen Feely are writing veterans of the Narnia franchise, and they are now Marvel writers (they wrote the first Captain America, and they’re writing Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. With a unique writer(s) and director team and a sweet ensemble cast, this could be a big surprise. Movies similar to this open at an average $19.46 million, and I can see this opening around Contraband‘s $23.4 million. My prediction is $24.8 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10: 

1. Pain & Gain: $24, 800, 000
2. Oblivion: $18, 058, 000
3. 42: $11, 322, 000
4. The Big Wedding: $10, 700, 000
5. The Croods: $6, 300, 000
6. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $3, 600, 000
7. The Place Beyond the Pines: $3, 350, 000
8. Scary Movie 5: $3, 016, 000
9. Olympus Has Fallen: $2, 600, 000
10. Evil Dead: $1, 698, 000

8 thoughts on “April 26-28 Box Office Predictions: ‘Pain & Gain’ vs. ‘The Big Wedding’

    1. LOL, I can see where you’re coming from. I think I might go tomorrow… I have a coupon for a ticket that expires at the end of April so I’m thinking, hey… Why not, right… Hopefully I like it a little! But now that I think of it, I might see The Colony instead… I really enjoyed Pain & Gain, by the way. My type of offbeat humour.

  1. LOL. I saw the subtitle “Pain & Gain” vs “The Big Wedding” and I got this image of the dudes from Pain and Gain punching everyone out at The Big Wedding. I’d have liked to have seen that. It would have been a much better movie. LOL 😆

    1. LOL, I’d pay money to see The Rock just knock Katherine Heigl the f*ck out… Maybe it’ll make her change the types of roles she picks, and make a McConaughey-esque turn to be a better performer 😀 But I’m not sure how likely that is 😦 Now I liked her when I first saw her in The Ringer and then Knocked Up, but then she just kept showing up… And now it’s like… Meh.

      Haha that would be funny though! Maybe the film-makers thought the same thing and it’ll be a Special feature on the DVD? 😀

      LOL! I didn’t think Pain & Gain was bad at all, though! It’s really bizarre, but I thought it was super fun!

      I read that Tony Shalhoub’s role was originally offered to Albert Brooks but he couldn’t do it and then John Turturro, but he had to drop out, so that’s a bit of a loss if you ask me 😦

    1. Hey thanks! Well yeah, mostly, but I had Evil Dead in the top 10 when it really should have been Jurassic Park 3D lol. Oh well. It definitely was one of my better weekends for the holdovers!

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